The dream of instant riches, nothing is more alluring than the thought of suddenly becoming rich. That desire has made the Wheel of Fortune, Megabucks, and other high jackpot slot machines so popular. Year after year the Wheel of Fortune and Megabucks slot machines continue to be a favorite of casino goers. Even people that don’t really like to play slots will throw $20 in a machine to see if they can hit a life changing jackpot. My personal favorite is when the casino “comps” (free) a certain number of max credit plays on Megabucks, which is currently at 15 million. That allows me to play without any guilt because they’re FREE!
Monday, May 7, 2018 10:19 a.m. A player hit an $11.2 million Megabucks slot machine jackpot Saturday night at the Paris Las Vegas. The big win was announced via the IGT Jackpots Twitter account. Megabucks is part of the company’s MegaJackpot slot system that connects about 750 machines in 136 Nevada casinos to one primary jackpot that builds from the base jackpot amount. International Game Technology owns the Megabucks machines and the casino gets a cut of the money that each machine wins from the players. Megabucks, created by International Game Technology ( IGT), may well be the most famous slot machine in the world today.This progressive slot machine can be found throughout International Game Technology (IGT) casinos in Las Vegas and other locations in Nevada, with smaller versions of the same jackpot being offered in other jurisdictions. The young man’s uncle heard about the trip to Excalibur Hotel & Casino and offered his nephew a little sage advice from a Las Vegas local – play the Megabucks slot machine and see what happens. At the time, Megabucks – which boasts the largest wide area progressive jackpot network in the world – had gone nearly a year without paying out. Megabucks Slots. Since being introduced to land-based casinos, the MegaBucks slot machine became an instant favorite thanks to the massive jackpots it offered. In fact, players can win anywhere from $8 to $39 million on these games, which is definitely a huge reason why slots fans continue to spin the reels on this machine on a regular basis.
Most of the real high value jackpots are progressive jackpots. Progressive means the jackpot continues to increase as the machine is played; until someone hits it then it goes back to the reset value. Progressive jackpots can be several jackpots put together into one. They link together many different slot machines and as people play any of the machines that are linked, the jackpot rises. The machines can be all in the same casino, or sometimes they are in several different casinos. Those are the machines that offer the Megabucks and Wheel of Fortune jackpots for millions of dollars.
As gamblers, we must ask ourselves what is the cost of playing these life altering machines. Well, let’s think this out logically. How in the world can a casino afford to payout a couple million dollars on a 25 cent or $1 denomination slot machine where the jackpot is usually a few thousand dollars?
There are two answers:
1. The first answer consists of the payback percentage. Payback percentage is the amount of money that the casino pays out to the players. For all the money that is put into the machine the percentage that the casino pays back to the customers as winnings is known as the payback percentage. In other words, if a casino takes in $100,000 on a specific slot machine, and during that same time period the machine pays out $90,000, the payback percentage would be 90%
Don’t get confused by payback percentage. It doesn’t mean if you sit down at a machine that has a 95% payback and put $100 in that you will play and get $95 back. That would be kind of pointless. What it means is over millions of spins 95% of the money will be returned to the players and the casino will profit 5%.
The problem with all of the high jackpot slot machines is they are set with very low payback percentages. They are usually set in the 80-88% percentile which is terrible. Again, looking at it logically the casino has to keep more money to help pay for that large progressive payout because it sure isn’t coming out of their profit.
2. The other reason the jackpot can rise so high has to do with the odds of hitting the jackpot. The odds on some high progressive slots are as bad as 1 in 35 million. You have a better chance of hitting the regular lottery. You probably have a better chance of finding the pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. The odds are so high it often takes years until someone hits the jackpot. In fact, the last time the $1 Megabucks was hit was in June of 2011 for 15 million dollars.
The Wheel-of-Fortune and Megabucks slot machines are a guilty pleasure and I must confess, even as an advantage gambler, I have fallen victim to the allure of instant riches. I don’t do it often and I never put in a lot of money, but every once in a while I’ll put $20 or $40 in and play. I’ll fantasize about what I would do with the money as I hit the spin button, but my fantasy is always ruined by losing all my credits. That’s why I like free comp plays because I can tell myself it’s not my money (in reality it is but that’s for another discussion).
We can all enjoy the fantasy of winning the jackpot on the large progressive slot machines like the Wheel of Fortune and Megabucks, but don’t let this fantasy turn into an obsession because these machines will take your money FAST!
What’s your favorite slot machine to play? Do you like Wheel of Fortune and Megabucks? Let me know your thoughts.
- Appendices
- Slots Analysis
- Miscellaneous
Introduction
This page investigates the odds of the progressive jackpot slot machine, Megabucks, including the average jackpot and breakeven point.
For now, let's ignore the fact that a jackpot is paid by installments over 25 years and that the jackpot would be subject to income tax.
I don't know exactly how Megabucks is programmed. However, there is some information that is public knowledge. If we fit the pieces together, we can make a pretty good estimate of the point at which the return is 100%, known as the 'breakeven point.' Here is what we do know:
- According to John Robison, the probability of hitting the jackpot is 1 in 49,836,032. This figure comes from an article titled Megabucks closes in on record jackpot from the Las Vegas Sun, Dec. 24, 1999. That probability comes to (1/368)3, implying each reel has a 1 in 368 chance of stopping on the jackpot symbol.
- The Nevada Gaming Control Board indicates that the profit of Megabucks on both a percentage and dollar basis. The following is a summary for 1994 to 2009.
Megabucks Win — 1994 to 2009
Year Win ($) Win (%) 2009 53,352,000 10.43% 2008 83,981,000 11.85% 2007 88,858,000 12.72% 2006 100,923,000 12.39% 2005 100,923,000 12.39% 2004 67,326,000 10.54% 2003 83,069,000 10.41% 2002 76,842,000 11.98% 2001 69,821,000 11.50% 2000 69,103,000 9.75% 1999 74,921,000 12.28% 1998 134,943,000 12.25% 1997 66,166,000 12.18% 1996 57,619,000 10.03% 1995 65,223,000 10.48% 1994 46,760,000 9.44% total 1,239,830,000 11.39% The key piece of information from this table is that the overall profit of the game has been 11.39%. In other words, 88.61% is returned to the players.
- According to defunct source, starting in September 2005, Megabucks was reset to a jackpot of $10 million. Before that, the reset value was $7 million.
- According to a2zlasvegas.com, there have been 11 jackpots hit between September 2005 and the date of the last jackpot (Feb. 21, 2010). That same website shows a jackpot was hit on September 15, 2005. The number of days between then and the time of this writing is 1,619 days. We also see from that website that the total of the last 11 jackpots was $167,367,727. Of that, $110,000,000 was from the reset amounts and $57,367,727 was from the progressive contribution.
3 = 548,196,352. Assuming each player bet the $3 required to win the jackpot, then a total of $1,644,589,056 was bet. The portion of money returned to players in form of jackpots is thus $167,367,727/$1,644,589,056 = 10.18%. From the Nevada Gaming reports, we know a total of 88.61% is returned to players. That means that the portion returned to players in non-jackpots is 88.61% - 10.18% = 78.44% (The 0.01% apparent difference is due to rounding).
If there were no small wins, and no progressive contribution, then the return of the game would be $10 million/(3×(1/368)3) = 6.69%. As already shown, the total return from jackpots is 10.18%, leaving 3.49% coming from the jackpot meter. Here is a summary of where each $1 bet on Megabucks goes:
Megabucks Breakdown
| Item | Cents |
|---|---|
| Fixed wins | 78.44¢ |
| Meter reset | 6.69¢ |
| Progressive contribution | 3.49¢ |
| Profit | 11.39¢ |
| Total | 100.00¢ |
The average point at which the jackpot will hit is 10 million + [$3 × 0.0349 / (1/368)3] = $15,215,248. In 2006, when the jackpot was almost $16 million, IGT, Megabuck's creator, purchased ads in the local media stating that the jackpot was 'overdue' to hit. I'm quoted in a Las Vegas Sun article about it, titled 'Pennies ready to pop'. This would seem to indicate my $15.2 million figure is not far off.
If j is the jackpot at which the game becomes a fair bet, with a 100% return, then we can solve for j as follows:
1 = 0.7844 + j × (1/368)3/3
j × (1/368)3/3 = 1 - 0.7844
j = 3 × (1 - 0.7844) / (1/368)3
j = $32,238,319.
The probability of any given jackpot growing this big is 1.41%. At the current rate of play, a jackpot should get this big once every 29 years, on average.
At any given time the return can be estimated as 78.44% + 0.6689%×m, where m is the number in millions of the current jackpot. For example, at a jackpot of $15 million, the return would be 78.44% + 0.006689×15 = 88.47%.
Everything in this page should be taken as a ballpark estimate. Various factors could cause it to be off, including players not betting the full $3 and the fact that while 11 jackpots were hit in the study period, the expected number could be higher or lower.
It also bears repeating that the above does not factor in the annuity or taxes. Let's look at what happens if we do consider those factors. For the time value of money, let's use the return on long-term Treasury Bills. Megabucks jackpots are paid in a 25-year annuity. At the time of this writing a 20-year T-Bill paid 4.58% interest, and a 30-year one paid 4.74%. Let's split the difference at 4.66%. Using some actuarial math I won't get into, the value of the annuity is worth 61.07% of face value, based on that interest rate, and 25 annual installments, at the beginning of each year.
For taxes, let's assume close to the expected jackpot of $15 million. Under 2010 income tax rates, assuming the winner is filing jointly, and all other income exactly equals deductions, the taxes due will be 30.05% for 2010. Assuming no change in the tax law, that will drop over time, because the tax brackets will be adjusted upward, but the winning payments won't be. I tend to think the recent passage of health care will increase tax rates, especially on large incomes. Let's just assume those factors cancel each other out, to keep it simple.
So to keep things in round numbers, the winner will keep 61% after the annuity, and 70% of that after taxes. So the jackpot winner will see about 61% × 70% = 42.7% of his winnings in current dollars. Factoring the annuity and taxes, the breakeven point becomes $75.5 million. The probability of any given jackpot growing that big is about 1 in 283,000, and will happen once every 114,000 years. Again, I'm making lots of assumptions, so these estimates should be considered very rough.
After publishing this article, a reader quoted a page at slot-machine-resource.com, which states that after the first installment is made, the player is given the option to get 60% of the rest immediately, or stick with the installment plan. Tax implications aside, which favor the annuity, the interest rate at which the two options are equal is 4.581%.
Megabucks Slot Machine Jackpot
External Links
- Megabucks Closes in on Record Jackpot from the Las Vegas Sun, Dec. 24, 1999.
- Nevada Gaming Control Board
- Slots Payout percentage, from Cassaon Casino.
- History of Megabucks Jackpots, from a2zlasvegas.com.
- Pennies Ready to Pop, from the Aug. 9, 2006 Las Vegas Sun.
- Megabucks, from slot-machine-resource.com.