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Blackjack Probability and Blackjack Odds
It is true that the casino has inflexible rules about when they must stand or hit. (It can be a little more complicated than you say, because in some casinos they must also hit 17 if it is “soft”, that is, contains an ace.). Of all the games and slots offered in the casino, blackjack, he told us, has some of the best odds for the player. A skilled blackjack player has an almost even chance of winning against the house.
To fully understand the game of blackjack, you must understand and master blackjack odds. It's crucial to know how the casino gains its edge and how it helps them win. It's also important to understand blackjack odds such as the odds of hitting a 10 or the odds of being dealt a blackjack. You can read over these blackjack odds charts to help understand the logistics behind blackjack.
Casino and Dealer Advantage in Blackjack
In most casino games of blackjack, the house advantage (the dealer advantage) is ~ 8%. The house gets this advantage by the dealer being the last player to act. By acting last, all other players have already made their decisions and could quite possibly bust before the dealer has his turn.
By using correct blackjack basic strategy, you can turn the casino edge in blackjack from 7%-8% down to 0.5%. If you correctly use advanced card counting techniques, you can often change blackjack odds and give yourself the advantage over the casino. Manipulating the house odds to your favor is the reason most casinos don't allow card counters to play blackjack.
Probability of Busting on a Hit
It's very important to know the probability of your hand busting when you are holding any total in the game of blackjack. The following odds chart shows the blackjack odds of busting, depending on your current hand value:
| Hand Value | % Bust If You Hit |
|---|---|
| 21 | 100% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or Less | 0% |
Two-Card Count Frequencies
This interesting blackjack odds chart is the two card count frequency chart. This chart shows the percentage chance that you will be dealt a hand in each given value range. The most important frequencey to note is the chance of being dealt a natural blackjack (natural 21 value. The odds of being dealt a natural blackjack are merely 4.8%. Following this chart you will see that the most common two card hand, at 38.7%, is a hand totaling 1-16, which is considered a decision hand.
| Two Card Count | % Frequency |
|---|---|
| Natural 21 | 4.8% |
| Hard Standing (17-20) | 30.0 % |
| Decision Hands (1-16) | 38.7% |
| No Bust | 26.5% |
| TOTAL | 100.0% |
Dealer Final Hand Probabilities
This blackjack odds chart shows the dealer final hand probability. These are the percentages that the dealer will end up with a hand totaling each corresponding value (up to 16). Read over this chart to understand the odds that the dealer has to make his final hand.
| Dealer Final Hand Value | % | Cumulative % Total |
|---|---|---|
| Natural 21 | 4.82% | 4.83% |
| 21 (3 or More Cards) | 7.36% | 12.19% |
| 20 | 17.58% | 29.77% |
| 19 | 13.48% | 43.25% |
| 18 | 13.81% | 57.06% |
| 17 | 14.58% | 71.64% |
| 16 | 28.36% | 100.00% |
Player Advantage vs. Dealer Up Card
The first two columns in this odds chart explain the dealer's chance of busting, depending on the up card that he is showing. You should note that the dealer has the highest chance of busting when he is showing a 5. The third column in this chart shows the player advantage of using basic strategy, compared to each up card the dealer is showing. You can see that the player has the highest advantage of 23.9%, when the dealer is showing a 5. When the dealer is showing any card that is 9 value or higher, the player is in the negative advantage range.
| Dealer Up Card | Dealer Bust % | Player Advantage % with Basic Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.30% | 9.8% |
| 3 | 37.56% | 13.4% |
| 4 | 40.28% | 18.0% |
| 5 | 42.89% | 23.2% |
| 6 | 42.08% | 23.9% |
| 7 | 25.99% | 14.3% |
| 8 | 23.86% | 5.4% |
| 9 | 23.34% | -4.3% |
| J,Q,K | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| A | 11.65% | -16.0% |
Effects of Removing Cards from a Deck
When looking at the odds of removing certain cards from a 52-card deck, some cards have a much greater effect on blackjack odds. To create the strongest card counting system ever invented, you would have to incorporate all of these slight and subtle differences into the numbers to be a completely accurate system.
Removing every 5 from a deck cards would make the largest impact of improving your blackjack odds, as a player. On the other hand, removing every Ace from a deck of cards would make the largest impact on improving the odds for the casino.
Blackjack Odds In Casino
| Card | % Effect of Removal |
|---|---|
| 2 | 0.40% |
| 3 | 0.43% |
| 4 | 0.52% |
| 5 | 0.67% |
| 6 | 0.45% |
| 7 | 0.30% |
| 8 | 0.01% |
| 9 | -0.15% |
| 10 | -0.51% |
| A | -0.59% |
See also:
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Blackjack Odds Against Casino Games
| Blackjack odds are dependent on the type of rule variation under which you are playing. With standard single deck blackjack the house has a 0.05% advantage. Any rule variations will have an effect on the player’s expected return | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A “five card Charlie” is an automatic winner on any five-card hand that has not busted. This rule does not apply after splitting or if the dealer has a blackjack. It is rare to find a casino that offers this. The six and seven card Charlie are similar variations with six-card and seven-card hands respectively. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| In European blackjack and in many online casinos the dealer does not check for a blackjack after dealing the cards. This is referred to as the “no-peek” rule, because the dealer doesn’t peek to see if he has a blackjack. In this case, after the players have played their hands, if the dealer does have a blackjack, then the player loses the full amount bet, including the additional bet if the player doubled or split. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Many casinos have prominent signs saying “Single Deck” blackjack. However on a much smaller sign it says, “Blackjack pays 6 to 5.” However the 6-5 on blackjacks costs the player an additional 1.39%, for a total house edge of 1.44%. At some tables a player blackjack always wins, which lowers the house edge by 0.21% to 1.23%. Either way this is a bad blackjack game to get mixed up with. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The table below shows the effect on the player’s return under various rule variations and after taking into consideration proper basic strategy adjustments. These changes are relative to the following rules: 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, player may double on any first two cards, player can double after splitting, player may resplit to 4 hands. These are standard Atlantic City rules with a resulting player return of -0.43%. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Example: Atlantic City Rules (-0.43%) with “Early surrender against Ace” (+0.39%) and “Player may not double after splitting” (-0.14%.) The resulting expected player return would be, -0.43% + 0.39% – 0.14%, which equals -0.18%. Under these variations the player would have better blackjack odds than under the standard rules. |